Betting tips for NBA playoffs: Celtics-Bucks, Grizzlies-Warriors Game 6s

All odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook.

What you need to know for today’s playoff games

All-In On Tatum: The last time the Celtics’ season was on the line, they went down swinging with Jayson Tatum dominating the game plan. Tonight shouldn’t be any different. We saw a glimpse of the uptick in Tatum’s usage on Wednesday, a game in which he took a shot every 87 seconds of court time (more than a 29% spike from his rate in this series. The numbers for his props are high, but might not be high enough, especially in the non-scoring categories. You shouldn’t hesitate to take some of the overs on Tatum’s props.

Now What?: The Grizzlies beat the brakes off of the Warriors Wednesday night and their pace was nearly identical to when they have had Ja Morant this postseason. With no player emerging as a go-to option as five different Grizzlies took 10-to-13 shots from the field. With all of the fireworks in this series, it is possible that we are overlooking a breakout game from Tyus Jones. Jones has 40 points, 14 assists and just one turnover in 65 minutes over the past two games without Morant. He was an afterthought in this series, but now has the ball in his hands plenty and his prop market has been slow to adjust. Memphis has embraced variance, meaning usage will be determined in-game. But it’s pretty clear that the Grizzlies have identified Jones as the driver of their offense, making him worth a look in both Daily Fantasy contests and prop markets.

— Jim McCormick & Kyle Soppe

Breaking down today’s games

Boston Celtics at Milwaukee Bucks
7:30 p.m ET, Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI

Line: Bucks (-1.5)
Money line: Bucks (-125), Celtics (+105)
Total: 211 points
BPI Projected Total: 222.6 points
BPI Win%: Bucks (54.8%)

Questionable: None (Knee)

Ruled Out: Khris Middleton (Knee)
Note: BPI numbers factors in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play

Notable: The Bucks are 2-4 ATS at home this postseason and have failed to cover six of their past eight overall in front of their fans.

Best bet: Jayson Tatum over 41.5 points + assists + rebounds. Ime Udoka will likely lean heavily on Jaylen Brown and Tatum with the Celtics on the brink of elimination. Tatum could have his best game of the series. He’s averaged 25 PPG, 5.2 APG and 5.8 RPG over the past five games while shooting a dismal 39.1% from the field. As long as Tatum prioritizes his shot selection and locks in, the Bucks will struggle to guard him. — Eric Moody

Best bet: Jaylen Brown over 23.5 points. Tatum and Brown have both scored 25 points or more in the same playoff game six times, tied for the most in Celtics postseason history by a pair of teammates. I believe they will do it again tonight. Brown has averaged 22.6 PPG and Boston will need a big game from him. — Moody

Best bet: Al Horford over 12.5 rebounds + assists. Horford’s defense and playmaking will be crucial in this game. He has averaged 10.6 RPG and 4.0 APG in this series and should surpass those averages in Game 6. — Moody

Best bet: Giannis Antetokounmpo over 53.5 points + assists + rebounds.

This is a huge number, but I’m expecting Antetokounmpo to have a monster game. He always shows up for moments like these. Last season, Antetokounmpo averaged 40 PPG, 14.7 RPG and 3.3 APG in the elimination games. He has also averaged 38.7 points, 13.7 rebounds and 5.3 assists over the past three games. Antetokounmpo went over 53.5 PAR in five of the six games cited, including the three straight in Eastern conference semifinals. — Andre Snellings

Best bet: Giannis Antetokounmpo over 47.5 points + rebounds

Antetokounmpo is the best player in the world. Win, lose, or draw he is going to deliver a dynamic performance in meaningful games. With an opportunity to close out the Celtics on his home floor, I fully expect Antetokounmpo to continue his hot streak. He has played 40-plus minutes in each of the past two games and I see no reason he won’t do so again in Game 6. — Tyler Fulghum

Memphis Grizzlies at Golden State Warriors
10:00 p.m ET, Chase Center, San Francisco, CA

Line: Warriors (-8)
Money line: Warriors (-400), Grizzlies (+310)
Total: 217.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 225.1 points
BPI Win%: Grizzlies (53.3%)

Questionable: Otto Porter Jr. (Foot)

Ruled Out: Ja Morant, Andre Iguodala (Neck), Gary Payton II (Elbow)
Note: BPI numbers factors in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play

Notable: Like rooting for points? The Grizzlies are 30-15-2 ATS this season when the over hits, something that very well could happen tonight when you consider that the winning team in Memphis playoff games this season is averaging a cool 118.4 points per game.

Best bet: Stephen Curry over 27.5 points. The Warriors will play with more heart and energy after their appalling performance in Game 5 in order to close out this series on their home court. Curry finished with 14 points while shooting 40% from the field. The Warriors won’t underestimate the Grizzlies tonight and Curry has averaged 28.4 PPG at home. I expect him to fully bounce back. — Moody

Best bet: Klay Thompson over 21.5 points. Thompson was very vocal with his teammates after getting clobbered by the Grizzlies in Game 5. We’ll see a totally different Warriors team on Friday night. Thompson has averaged 19.4 PP in home playoff games over the course of his career. — Moody

Best bet: Jaren Jackson Jr. over 17.5 points. Jackson is too big for the small-ball that the Warriors like to run, and he’s taken advantage of the mismatches with one of his best scoring stretches of the season. Jackson has averaged 20.4 PPG in this series and he’s scored 21 points in back-to-back games. However, Jackson still has a penchant for foul trouble and if he’s not in the game he can’t score. If Jackson can stay on the court he’s got a great chance to put another big mark on the board. — Snellings

Best bet: Warriors 2H (-3.5)

Memphis’ 39-point shellacking of the Warriors in Game 5 was one of the most surprising “no-shows” in playoff history. Perhaps I’m foolish for doing so, but I will just erase that one game from my memory and rely on the years of data that indicates this team can rise to the occasion in the postseason. Memphis is clearly giving the Warriors fits, but I struggle to see how they can extend the series on the road in San Francisco. The Warriors are a different animal at home and I have to imagine that they are embarrassed by what happened Wednesday night. Memphis may hang tight for the first couple of quarters, but ultimately the championship pedigree of the Warriors will prevails in the second half. –– Fulghum

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