Xi helping Putin? New China laws send Ukraine weapon plan into freefall

October 3, 2023

Drone drops two explosive devices on substation in Kursk area

China has seemingly stepped in to create new obstacles for Ukraine as the Eastern European nation pushes forward with its counteroffensive against Russia, new analysis has shown.

Kyiv has reported issues with sourcing new drones and drone parts from China since Beijing implemented new export control restrictions in recent months.

Ukraine has been heavily relying on drones in its fight back against Moscow after the unmanned aircraft proved to be of vital importance in conducting long-distance strikes on targets.

The Asian superpower controls a huge share of the commercial drone industry as well as the supply side, and has seemingly been using its position in the market to influence access for Ukraine.

Over the summer, Beijing outlined a new series of export controls which came into effect on September 1 in what the government insisted were efforts to protect “national security and interests”.

A recent report from The New York Times showed the new rules have effectively prevented Ukrainian defense forces from accessing commercial drones or key substitution parts.

Ukrainian manufacturers reported that Chinese suppliers had stopped forwarding parts, forcing companies to look into alternatives to ensure a continued flow of drones to the front lines.

Victory Drones project chief Maria Berlinska said: “We have to reinvent more and more complicated supply chains.”

Both sides have extensively used both commercial and civilian drones since shortly after the start of the war, with the Royal United Services Institute showing Kyiv loses an estimated 10,000 per month.

Geo-political analyst Yuri Poita has also suggested Beijing is trying to limit Ukraine’s fighting capabilities by reducing access.

China has maintained it remains neutral on the matter of war but President Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin have been cozying up to each other for years, with the Russia expected to visit China sometime this month.

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“China, by limiting supplies, may covertly try to reduce the combat potential of Ukraine, increase the advantages of Russian armed forced, and thus create the conditions for bringing Ukraine to surrender,” said the head of the Asia-Pacific section of the Center for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Studies in Ukraine.

A spokesperson for the Chinese Embassy in Washington DC insisted Beijing’s regulation on drones falls in line with domestic policy and reiterated China is committed to finding a peaceful resolution to the conflict in Ukraine.

Speaking to Newsweek, Liu Pengyu said: “China always handles the export of military items in a prudent and responsible manner and acts in strict accordance with domestic laws and regulations and our due international obligations.”

But despite its continued claims of neutrality, analysis showed China supplied the majority of drone components to Russia since the start of the war and that it was behind 85 to 90 percent of critical components.

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Last week, Ukraine hosted an international defense industry conference as part of a government effort to ramp up weapon production within the country.

The event marked a new development in support of Ukraine, with the previous focus being on the delivery of weapons, repair of damaged equipment and military training of Ukrainian soldiers.

President Volodymyr Zelensky said that around 250 defense companies from more than 30 countries had gathered. Defense ministers and representatives of several countries also attended the event.

To support the cooperation and develop an industry complex, Ukraine plans to establish a special fund, which will be paid into through dividends from state defense resources and profits from the sale of confiscated Russian assets, Zelensky said.

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